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I hate when people call it a warm winter - I don't care for statistics, its single anomalies that kill plants, and in that aspect 22/23 was already far worse than 21/22.

It's going to be a wild week of winter weather for the folks living in the Pacific Northwest and also for large parts of California. It looks like there will be two major winter storms hitting the area this week.  Here's what the storm on Tuesday will look like. 

This winter Metro Phoenix has seen typical nighttime lows, but our daytime highs have been much lower than normal. By early February it's usually warm enough to garden without a shirt. It's still too chilly for that. In the late 1980s there was a year when it was already 100 F / 38C the first week of March. It only got hotter.

In Britain, 'warm hubs' emerge to beat soaring energy costs (AP News 3/4/23)

STRATFORD-UPON-AVON, England (AP) — On a blustery late-winter day in Shakespeare's birthplace, the foyer of the Other Place theater is a cozy refuge. Visitors are having meetings over coffee, checking emails, writing poetry, learning to sew.

Warm hubs have sprouted across Britain by the thousands this winter as soaring food and energy prices drive millions to turn down the thermostat or skimp on hot meals. Research by the opposition Labour Party counted almost 13,000 such hubs, funded by a mix of charities, community groups and the government and nestled in libraries, churches, community centers and even a tearoom at King Charles III's Highgrove country estate.

Wendy Freeman, an artist, writer and seventh-generation Stratfordian, heard about the RSC's warm hub from a friend. She lives in "a tiny house with no central heating" and relies on a coal fire for warmth. Like many, she has cut back in response to the cost-of-living crisis driven by the highest inflation since the 1980s.

"You just adapt," said Freeman, 69, who was using the center as a warm, quiet place to work on a poem. "Little things, like putting less water in the kettle. I was brought up with 'save the pennies, and the pounds will look after themselves.' I always cook from scratch and eat what's in season.

"But it's nice to go somewhere warm," she added.

The U.K.'s annual inflation rate was just above 10% in January, with food prices up almost 17% over the year. Some 62% of adults are using less natural gas or electricity to save money, according to the Office for National Statistics. A quarter of households regularly run out of money for essentials, pollster Survation found.  Though oil and natural gas prices have fallen from last year's peaks, the average British household energy bill is still double what it was a year ago. Costs for many are due to rise by another 20% on April 1 when a government-set price cap goes up.

Anne Bolger, a retired math teacher, happened across the warm hub during a walk one day and has come back every week since. She drops in to check emails, prep for math tutoring or do a jigsaw puzzle.

"Today's the day that I'm appreciating it, because home is freezing," she said.

That's just what organizers want to hear. They say warm hubs exist to ease loneliness as well as energy poverty.

How things change, yesterday keep six feet apart guys, today huddle together for warmth.

Energy prices are considerable.

News is that UK government will continue to subsidise energy beyond April - this is because prices have not been as high as they planned for, and they expect them to continue to decline. The hope is that by the start of next Winter, prices will have fallen below the level of the government fixed price.

I see that the media have started the "biggest transfer of wealth" story. We're all huddling together and seeing our savings diminish, the corollary is that someone is getting wealthier.

In the 70s oil shock it was the Middle East oil states, who eventually had to be provided with something to recycle their money on.

Does anyone remember Liz Truss, the UK prime minister who lasted 49 days. One reason the pound fell and she had to be got rid of was the amount the energy price guarantee was going to cost. Turns out it has cost nothing like as much as was thought.

Quote from: Bern on March 04, 2023, 06:12:00 AMThe U.K.'s annual inflation rate was just above 10% in January, with food prices up almost 17% over the year. Some 62% of adults are using less natural gas or electricity to save money, according to the Office for National Statistics. A quarter of households regularly run out of money for essentials, pollster Survation found.  Though oil and natural gas prices have fallen from last year's peaks, the average British household energy bill is still double what it was a year ago. Costs for many are due to rise by another 20% on April 1 when a government-set price cap goes up.

The latest story I read about inflation in the USA was that the Federal Reserve Chairman had said it was "going sideways." I don't believe the actual published numbers anymore. My feet on the ground sense and personal observation is that it is still going up and not going sideways. I have to push back from following the news about it because it just ticks me off. 

Quote from: David Pilling on March 04, 2023, 02:02:35 PMHow things change, yesterday keep six feet apart guys, today huddle together for warmth.

Exactly!  So Uncle Sam shuts down the country and isolates everyone. Then the Federal Reserve buys $5 trillion dollars worth of bonds and the money supply explodes upward.  At the same time, they lower interest rates to where borrowing money is as close to being free as it can get. People went crazy buying up houses and bidding them up to ridiculous and record highs.  I recently spoke to a realtor in northwest Arkansas and she told me that during the height of covid, her office was seeing a record 34 offers on modest homes.  So, one part of the government says it's isolating people while another part is encouraging people to go out and mingle to buy houses and other things.  The result is inflation and it's not going sideways.  And I'm sure the covid infection and mortality numbers went up as a result of the conflicting policy decisions as well.

Quote from: David Pilling on March 04, 2023, 02:02:35 PMDoes anyone remember Liz Truss, the UK prime minister who lasted 49 days.

I wish that we could get rid of some of our elected officials as easily as it can be done in the UK.

Quote from: Leo on March 02, 2023, 03:32:48 PMThis winter Metro Phoenix has seen typical nighttime lows, but our daytime highs have been much lower than normal. By early February it's usually warm enough to garden without a shirt. It's still too chilly for that. In the late 1980s there was a year when it was already 100 F / 38C the first week of March. It only got hotter.

Hey Leo, Do you have shade structures or shade houses in your yard in Phoenix that allows your plants to withstand the summer heat and sunlight?  Do you use a drip irrigation system to keep your plants hydrated?  I know people who grow cacti and succulents in Arizona, but none of them describe themselves as gardeners.  What kind of plants do you grow in Phoenix?

Enquiring minds want to know!

Cheers,

Bern

The current UK prime minister is Rishi Sunak, who was the finance minister during the pandemic. In that job he gave tax concessions to the housing market, and subsidised eating out (something which it now transpires the experts thought would spread covid). He called it "eat out to help out", they called it "eat out to spread it about".

Anyway Rishi Sunak has promised to halve inflation in short order. He is typical of the string of opinion that says inflation is now going to decline rapidly.

Meanwhile my YouTube subscriptions is full of videos predicting a US stock market crash at any moment.

Who is right, there's only one way to find out, look at this topic in six months time.

Quote from: Bern on March 04, 2023, 04:41:53 PMEnquiring minds want to know!

Enquiring minds consult the PBS wiki:

https://www.pacificbulbsociety.org/pbswiki/index.php/LeoMartin

Quote from: David Pilling on March 04, 2023, 05:38:18 PMEnquiring minds consult the PBS wiki:

Fantastic! Thanks David.

Quote from: David Pilling on March 04, 2023, 05:37:33 PMMeanwhile my YouTube subscriptions is full of videos predicting a US stock market crash at any moment.

The US stock market has been grotesquely overvalued by all normal valuation means for a very long time.  The next crash will happen, to paraphrase Ernest Hemingway on bankruptcy, gradually, then suddenly. 

Quote from: David Pilling on March 04, 2023, 05:37:33 PMAnyway Rishi Sunak has promised to halve inflation in short order. He is typical of the string of opinion that says inflation is now going to decline rapidly.

The next presidential election cycle in the US will commence in earnest shortly, even though the actual election won't take place until November 2024.  There will be pressure to engineer an economic recovery between now and then, or to say that one has occurred even if it has not.  The Rishi Sunak types will be out talking up a storm about how wonderful things are.  If the big algos smell a rat, then they'll unload and the crash will leave small investors and retirees holding the bag again.  You're right, time will tell.  I take things a day at a time now.

Quote from: Bern on March 04, 2023, 04:41:53 PMDo you have shade structures or shade houses in your yard in Phoenix that allows your plants to withstand the summer heat and sunlight?  Do you use a drip irrigation system to keep your plants hydrated?  I know people who grow cacti and succulents in Arizona, but none of them describe themselves as gardeners.  What kind of plants do you grow in Phoenix?

Enquiring minds want to know!

Great questions... I have a patio covered with polycarbonate and shade cloth for many succulent and other plants in containers. In the ground people learn to use shrubs and trees as sun protection for smaller plants. I remind newcomer gardeners that this part of the Sonoran Desert, in comparison to many other deserts, gets colder in winter, hotter in summer, has less rain, and has rain both winter and summer. A common landscape plant here is the non-native Texas Ranger, a swarm of species and hybrids in genus Leucophyllum. We don't get enough rain to establish seedlings, but adults don't require irrigation. I permitted a lot of their seedlings, plus our native creosote bush, Larrya tridentata, to remain so I have a lot of shady spots for other things.

We average 200mm / 8 inches of rain per year, but it is highly erratic. 60% falls with thunderstorms in the summer monsoon between June and September, originating from the Sea of Cortez. The remainder falls gently with cool winter storms from the Pacific. A little snow falls about once in ten years.

I water plants in pots by hand. I have a drip system for my landscaping, and a soaking hose irrigation system for my orchard. Most of the landscape is mature enough to need very little water, so the drip is no longer on a timer. Very few irrigation system installers understand plants so I specified four zones: one for trees and shrubs, one for smaller plants that need more frequent water, one for desert plants that don't need supplemental winter water and one for desert plants that do need supplemental winter water.

Quote from: Leo on March 05, 2023, 10:43:24 AMIn the ground people learn to use shrubs and trees as sun protection for smaller plants.

Hey Leo, Do you have any Palo Verde trees Parkinsonia florida or Parkinsonia aculeata on your property?  Do they get tall enough and have sufficient branches and leaves to provide shade for other plants in the summer?  They are deciduous, so they would have less sun protection in the winter, but maybe that is a good thing for some of your winter growers.  I've always liked this tree and I have seen some very nice ones growing in Tucson. The green trunk and branches are very striking on some specimens.  Some of the very small, hard grown Palo Verde trees in nature look like well grown bonsai subjects.  And do mesembs grow well for you in Phoenix? 

Quote from: Bern on 3/8/2023, 3:42:58 PM Hey Leo, Do you have any Palo Verde trees Parkinsonia florida or Parkinsonia aculeata on your property?  Do they get tall enough and have sufficient branches and leaves to provide shade for other plants in the summer? And do mesembs grow well for you in Phoenix?

Hi Bern, I'm going to ignore name changes and use old tree names for the species known colloquially as "palo verde" = Spanish for "green branch." Cercidium floridum and C. microphyllum are native here. They are slow growing and require only occasional thinning of lower branches as they die. Parkinsonia aculeata is a Mexican species but widespread here in landscaping. Unfortunately it is producing hybrid swarms with the natives, extending great distances from cities.

I say unfortunately because aculeata seedlings are prolific enough to be weedy, grow extremely fast, have weak wood that breaks easily in our summer storms, have numerous, large and very sharp thorns lacking in our native species, and are highly susceptible to attack by our two species of giant Palo Verde boring beetles. Root damage from these grubs causes them to blow over in storms. They are not long-lived. They do have larger and more beautiful flowers than our natives, produced sporadically all summer, whereas our natives flower once in spring. Aculeata wood has a peculiar skunky smell.

Aculeata passes all these undesirable traits to its hybrids, though sometimes the thorns are not inherited. When sawing a tree that looks exactly like one of our natives but grows too fast, the smell reveals its hybrid origin.


The native trees on my property have all died of old age since I bought it in 1986. The one P. aculeata blew over in a storm. I have allowed seedlings looking like our natives to grow in strategic spots for shade. I weed out anything resembling aculeata.

I will try to append photos of my house in 1986-87 and 2015. With the same mattock I still use, I planted everything not in the earlier photo. My property is along a major desert wash. Rather than soil I have rocks separated by dust, so shovels are useless.

I don't shade my winter bulbs. Our winter sun seems excellent for them. I am at 33 degrees North. I bring some into the house for summer.

Most mesembs do very well here in winter. But several native bird species will destroy them as soon as they are seen. They can't be grown outside a screened enclosure, which I still don't have. Some mesembs cannot tolerate our occasional night-time frosts, from -1C to rarely -8. Summer night temperatures are another barrier. We may have many weeks in a row of night lows over 30C/85 F. Many mesembs melt because they can't breathe. Those need to come into the house for the hottest part of summer.

Hi Leo,

Thank you for the great before and after photos of your house.  Your property looks like the proverbial oasis in the desert. It's good to see what can be done in an arid environment with judicious choices of plants and a drip irrigation system, especially one with four zones.

And thanks for the education about the nomenclature changes and the growing habits of the palo verde trees.  I'll be more cognizant of the different species when I'm visiting again in Arizona.

Is your property ever visited by javelinas?  Do you ever encounter rattlesnakes or coral snakes on your property?  Do you ever have problems with scorpions getting inside your house?  I'm fairly sure that the stories of scorpion infested homes in Phoenix that I've occasionally heard here on the East Coast are overblown in frequency as well as severity.  But, I thought I'd ask.

Thanks again for all of the information and the great pics. 

In the EU's inflation crisis, the humble egg takes the cake  From AP News March 10, 2323

BRUSSELS (AP) — The humble egg has become a star performer for all the wrong reasons as inflation has hit households across the European Union extremely hard over the year.

The EU's statistical agency Eurostat announced Friday that the average price of an egg — that important staple for poor families and gourmet cooks alike — had risen by 30% over the year to January 2023, becoming a symbol of how the cost of living has hit everyone in the 27-nation bloc.

Even if the latest inflation figures show that annual inflation in the 20-nation eurozone has started to decline to 8.5% in February, the sector of food, alcohol and tobacco continued to rise and stood at 15%.

And then, eggs outperform just about all. Two years ago, egg inflation still stood at a lean 1%, rising to 7% the year after before reaching 30% in February.

Egg prices were whipped up the most in the Czech Republic, rising 85% over the year, followed closely by two other central European nations — Hungary (80%) and Slovakia (79%). Germany and Luxembourg stood at the other end, with both experiencing a relatively lower increase of 18%.

In the United States, egg prices have surged over the past year because of the ongoing bird flu outbreak and the highest inflation in decades. The national average retail price of a dozen eggs hit $4.25 in December, up from $1.79 a year earlier, according to the latest government data.